UNC @ Georgia Tech Preview

Will Sturivant lead the UNC defense to another shutdown of Tech's unique triple option?

Here we go!

The first ACC game of the season - and a huge matchup in addition.

Georgia Tech was considered by many to be the best team in the ACC (or at least 2nd behind Virginia Tech) heading into the season. The primary reason - their maddening triple wishbone option offense (or whatever you want to call it).

Very few teams had an answer for it - except, of course, for UNC, which won 28-7 last year in Kenan.

UNC played their best game of the season against Tech last year. Tech is coming off a prime-time shellacking at the hands of now top-10 nationally Miami. With the big loss last week and last year vs the Heels - the Yellow Jackets are going to be pumped up for this game.

Keys to the game:
Offense: The continued emergence of the wide receivers and offensive line. Against ECU, UNC showed a surprisingly potent passing game - thanks to the emergence of WR Erik Highsmith, and in smaller part, Jerhaine Boyd. They will be facing a more talented secondary this week, so their ability to get open will be tested. I'm not convinced that Highsmith is ready to be a go-to guy yet - this game could go a long way towards changing my mind. Dwight Jones might play, but probably in a very limited role - so it will probably be another week or two until he can be a steady contributor.

The offensive line, on the other hand, might have better luck than it has in the past two weeks, as Georgia Tech has some holes on the defensive line. Hopefully, Draughn can finally emerge as the primary offensive threat we all thought he would be this year. Jonathan Cooper should be closer to 100% this week than last, which should help. Also, on the injury front, Ryan Taylor is still a few weeks away (85% according to Butch), so don't expect him to help block in the H-Back role for a game or two more.

Key player: TJ Yates - he should have a little more time to make reads in the pocket - will he take advantage and pick the defense apart?

Defense: This is the key to the game - winning or losing against Tech depends on the ability to defend against their option. Last season, UNC had a bye week to prepare for this unique attack - no such luck this year. Butch did say that they spent some time in the preseason working against it - so we'll see how prepared they look.

How our defensive line and linebackers perform will be of paramount importance. Luckily, the Tar Heels are nasty-good in both respects. Austin, Wilson, Thomas, and Quinn should eat up blocks and blow up plays against an iffy Tech offensive line. This will give our stellar linebacker corps the ability to get upfield and make tackles. With the speed of our outside linebackers, and the smarts of MIKE Quan Sturdivant, we have a chance to shut Tech down. One of the primary indicators Tech's potential success is if their fullback can get to the second level to make blocks. I doubt they'll be able to do this consistently, as he'll be hitting our defensive line like an Citrogen into a brick wall.

And the mediocre performance of the UNC's secondary last week against ECU should be forgotten as we face a team that rarely passes. As long as they stay focused and in position, expect big hitters like Charles Brown and Da'Norris Searcy to make some plays on the edge.

Key Player: Quan Sturdivant. Sturdivant has a nose for the ball - if he plays as smart as he nearly always does, Georgia Tech's talented backs will be forced to the edge, where speedster athletes Zach Brown, Bruce Carter, and Robert Quinn will be itching to make plays.

- Of note - long snapper Trevor Stuart tore his ACL last week against ECU and is out for the season. Last season's starter, Mark House, will be taking over. Let's hope the snaps are on target.

- Tech is favored by 3 points on bodog, my preferred betting site.

- UNC also really needs to improve it's punting game. Punter Grant Schallock averaged a disturbing 31.2 yards per punt on four attempts. UNC has lost the matchup in punting average in all three games this year. That could affect outcomes against better opponents, no question.

- Three different Tar Heels completed passes last week. Yates, obviously, but also Shaun Draugh on a trick play and AJ Blue in a surprise pass out of the "Wild Ram" offense (as I call it).

My diagnosis: I changed my mind (see below) I'm still not convinced about UNC's offense yet - but if our OL has its best game so far, that should go a long way towards scoring just enough. And while our defense isn't perfect, our run defense could be pretty damn near stellar - and that's a tough matchup for Tech.

My pick: UNC wins 21-13

Note: I changed my mind on this one - here's what I originally said:

My diagnosis: I will try not to let my bias affect my predictions - so I'm afraid I'm picking against the Heels today. I'm not convinced of our offense yet - maybe because I haven't shaken off that UConn game...and Tech's offense will be fired up at home after losing big to Miami (and our win last year) - with the way they play, all it takes is one missed tackle and it's the end zone.

Tech wins it - 17 to 14

Here's to hoping I'm wrong!!



Go Heels!!