UNC vs. Virginia Preview

Can UNC fare better this year than last year against Virginia?

On Saturday, at noon (again??), UNC faces off against 0-3 Virginia. This is just what UNC needs, after an offensive performance (in the bad way, not at all in the good way) against Georgia Tech, losing 24-7.

The loss is completely on the offense. The fact that UNC was even in the game at all at halftime was because of the play of the defense. Don't get me wrong, they missed some plays in the 2nd half, but you cannot place the blame on the defense for that loss. Georgia Tech had possession for an ENTIRE HALF longer than UNC. No defense in the country has the depth to fight fatigue with that kind of time of possession differential. They were tired - and Georgia Tech just needed a few missed tackles to rack up a lot of yardage and get the win.

I should have stuck with my gut instinct of not trusting the hype that UNC might have a moderately function offense. That was clearly not the case - and ECU was a mirage.

The culprit is still the offensive line. However, Yates had a very poor game as well. He missed several receivers on some painfully easy opportunities. If UNC had a viable backup at QB, he might be getting some reps this weekend.

But we don't, and Yates has proven in the past that while he may be inconsistent, he has some hidden talent (in this case, hidden deep deep deep down). Let's hope that's the case.

Luckily, UNC faces 0-3 Virginia this weekend, fresh of a loss to Southern Miss (not to mention they lost their first game of the year to William & Mary - a good FCS, but an FCS team nonetheless). Virginia's offense showed some life in their matchup against S. Miss, but it would need a serious jump start to fare well against UNC's talented defense. Head coach Al Groh is apparently tweaking his offense for this game, so expect less of the spread they've been trying to implement and more of a conventional look.

Also, expect UNC to have some more success against Virginia on offense. This will probably look more like our game against ECU. Which is good, because H-back Ryan Taylor, WR Dwight Jones, and OG Jonathan Cooper are all still probably a week away from being healthy (and our offense needs them). It'd be nice if Dwight Jones had some production this weekend - but I doubt we'll see him grab more than 1-2 catches. Until he gets up to speed, expect us to continue going to Highsmith - the only bright spot in UNC's arsenal so far.

Offensive Key to the Game: The Offensive Line - we need the push we had last year to get our ground game going. In our two away games this year (vs. UConn and Georgia Tech), we've rushed 56 times for 52 yards. That hurts to even say...Draughn needs to work on running a bit more north to south, but the rushing woes are not his fault.

Defensive Key to the Game: Our secondary - Virgina QB Jameel Sewell passed for 300+ yards last week as the Cavaliers scored 34 points against an always-talented Southern Miss program. The yardage won't be as easy to come by against UNC - but I doubt Virginia will be able to run the ball effectively against the Heels, so if Virginia's going to challenge UNC, it'll be through the air. note: Kendric Burney needs to improve his play to help us get our first ACC win.

Summary - Virginia will not be a pushover of a game. While their FCS loss was a bad one - no one can fault them losing to nationally-ranked TCU - and they showed a lot of improvement in their loss to Southern Miss. With UNC's anemic offense, anything can happen. But expect the Heels to get some much-needed traction on offense against a weaker ACC defense - enough to win the game. Virginia scored 14 points against TCU, one of the best defenses in the nation. I'd expect them to do the same to us - as the Heels have one of the better defenses in the nation themselves. Home advantage will be key here...

My prediction: UNC wins 27-14.

Go Heels!