Thursday, October 8, 2009

The Reason UNC is Really Really Bad Right Now

I keep telling people this year that UNC's offensive line is heavily injured - but I'm not sure if I've really sat back and counted the injuries/losses.

Let's begin:

Garrett Reynolds - Graduated - Drafted by NFL
Calvin Darity - Graduated
Aaron Stahl - Opted to forgo final year of eligibility
Kevin Bryant - Kicked off team for misdemeanor assault
Carl Gaskins - tore ligament in knee - out for season
Jonathan Cooper - high ankle sprain - still limited
Lowell Dyer - strained muscle in shoulder - still out
Kyle Jolly - sprained ankle last week - status unknown (our only remaining original starter)

And that's not to mention the loss of H-Back Ryan Taylor - who serves as an extra blocker in run formations - to injury. Last year, we had TE Richard Quinn, who was drafted in the 2nd round because of his spectacular blocking ability. We also lost Zack Pianalto - our starting TE this year, who blocks with the line.

That's ELEVEN blockers missing on the line. ELEVEN!! I've never heard of an O-Line this depleted. We're playing with some guys who have no idea what they're doing. Greg Elleby switched from the D-Line to play as a backup, and is now STARTING!

This, my friends, is why UNC has gotten off to the abysmal start. A strong O-Line, and I strongly believe UNC would be 5-0, and on their way to 6-0 right now. Yes, Yates isn't great - and out WRs suffered unprecedented defection from last year (Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Tate, Brooks Foster, Cooter Arnold, and sort of Richard Quinn). Our offense would not be great with an offensive line, but it would be serviceable. Don't forget that UNC has 3 really good running backs (freshman Jamal Womble is the other one, if you are confused). Our running game last year was very good because of the O-Line strength we no longer have.

The scary thing is that considering how miserable our run blocking has been this year, our pass protection has been okay at times. I will tell you why - Kyle Jolly. He's was our starting left tackle, which is by and far the most important position for protecting the passer. If he can't play, expect Georgia Southern to get some serious pressure. And don't get me started on what Virginia Tech will do.

Luckily, if UNC can get through the GA Southern game (which I believe they will), we should have Cooper, Dyer, Jolly, and Ryan Taylor back blocking for us. That infusion of depth, along with the continued development of the younger guys, should make for a better offense. And Dwight Jones could emerge as another receiving option for us since he's just recovered from injury. However, this improvement might not be apparent against Virginia Tech, who will probably offset this advantage with their talented and speedy defense. Our schedule gets a lot harder from here on out. UNC will have to really fight to be bowl eligible. We need 7 wins this year due to our two FCS opponents. That means out of Virginia Tech, FSU, Boston College, Miami, NC State, and Duke - UNC needs 3 wins. Every game is losable, but every game is winnable (though I wouldn't count on beating Miami or Virginia Tech, no matter our improvement).

UNC's defense has shown that it can keep us in games. On that note, Robert Quinn is a freaking beast - just wanted to make that known. I see him going in the first round of the draft a few years down the road. FYI.

I say UNC should beat Duke. Let's say we lose to Miami and VT. That means we need to beat either BC or NC State. If our offense gets to maybe just below my relatively meager expectations before the season, I'd say we win at least one of those games. If it stays how it was against Virginia, I'm not so sure if we even beat Duke - much less BC or NCSU.

So keep an eye on this line.

Please, please get healthy everyone!!

Go heels....

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